Comments on: Sixty Minutes http://www.absinthetics.com/blog/2006/06/15/sixty-minutes/ Begging your indulgence since 200x. Tue, 22 Jun 2010 15:35:03 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: columbo http://www.absinthetics.com/blog/2006/06/15/sixty-minutes/comment-page-1/#comment-3349 columbo Mon, 17 Jul 2006 01:17:13 +0000 http://www.absinthetics.com/blog/2006/06/15/sixty-minutes/#comment-3349 I love this post. I have it bookmarked. And I totally agree that it leaves you short-stacked at the final table. BUT, no other strategy really has a chance in this day in age (online at least). Now I need to figure out how to TAG the players who wont laydown hands! I love this post. I have it bookmarked. And I totally agree that it leaves you short-stacked at the final table. BUT, no other strategy really has a chance in this day in age (online at least).
Now I need to figure out how to TAG the players who wont laydown hands!

]]> By: Absinthe http://www.absinthetics.com/blog/2006/06/15/sixty-minutes/comment-page-1/#comment-2243 Absinthe Mon, 26 Jun 2006 01:42:34 +0000 http://www.absinthetics.com/blog/2006/06/15/sixty-minutes/#comment-2243 I will happily push a defined edge, even if it's small. Top pair and a flush draw, I'll take the chance you've got me outkicked. Overcards plus flush draw against a likely pair (AsKs on a 57J board with two spades), straight flush draws (even the wrong end!), etc. I think where most people go wrong is in overestimating their preflop edge, and the "there's always another tourney" can hurt your game as well as help it - I don't think that the ability to buy into another tourney sometime in the near future has anywhere near the value of a rebuy in a cash game. You lose a lot of intangibles like accumulated information, which greatly impacts your ability to estimate your edge. Also, I want to win the tourney I'm actually playing, not one in the future. I also think the old saw that you "gotta give action to get action" is no longer remotely true, especially in the early going. I will happily push a defined edge, even if it’s small. Top pair and a flush draw, I’ll take the chance you’ve got me outkicked. Overcards plus flush draw against a likely pair (AsKs on a 57J board with two spades), straight flush draws (even the wrong end!), etc. I think where most people go wrong is in overestimating their preflop edge, and the “there’s always another tourney” can hurt your game as well as help it – I don’t think that the ability to buy into another tourney sometime in the near future has anywhere near the value of a rebuy in a cash game. You lose a lot of intangibles like accumulated information, which greatly impacts your ability to estimate your edge. Also, I want to win the tourney I’m actually playing, not one in the future.

I also think the old saw that you “gotta give action to get action” is no longer remotely true, especially in the early going.

]]> By: Ranger http://www.absinthetics.com/blog/2006/06/15/sixty-minutes/comment-page-1/#comment-1481 Ranger Sun, 18 Jun 2006 14:37:58 +0000 http://www.absinthetics.com/blog/2006/06/15/sixty-minutes/#comment-1481 That's an entirely valid point but also entirely separate from the one you were making, so I'll rephrase: given that in my best judgement I am +EV against my opponent's range, I will always take the gamble. Of course my read may be off, but bad reads go both ways, and I am more frequently surprised by the weakness of an opponent's holding than by the strength. What I am trying to say, in essence, is that the early levels of a big online tournament are not structurally different from a cash game. Agree/disagree? That’s an entirely valid point but also entirely separate from the one you were making, so I’ll rephrase: given that in my best judgement I am +EV against my opponent’s range, I will always take the gamble. Of course my read may be off, but bad reads go both ways, and I am more frequently surprised by the weakness of an opponent’s holding than by the strength.

What I am trying to say, in essence, is that the early levels of a big online tournament are not structurally different from a cash game. Agree/disagree?

]]> By: Absinthe http://www.absinthetics.com/blog/2006/06/15/sixty-minutes/comment-page-1/#comment-1436 Absinthe Sat, 17 Jun 2006 08:02:05 +0000 http://www.absinthetics.com/blog/2006/06/15/sixty-minutes/#comment-1436 The problem with the "+EV is +EV" argument is that usually proponents of it appeal to hope while diminishing quite reasonable fears. It's all well and good to presume that you're a 3:2 favorite, but another thing entirely to be one - even with the best notes and tracking of regular players your likely edge when (to reference a recent discussion) taking TT to war early on is less than it would be if you just put TT up against AK over and over again - sometimes you'll be up against suited overcards, sometimes an underpair (huge edge), sometimes (slightly more often, as not everyone's that dumb)an overpair (not so huge an edge). (With apologies to <a href="http://pokernerd.blogspot.com/" rel="nofollow">Nerd</a>, whose recent dissection of the UTG TT hand puts me to shame.) And this also presumes you can get all the money in before the flop; pushing tiny preflop edges with 5-20% of your stack will only work for you if you play well after the flop <i>and</i> get lucky. How big does a preflop edge have to be, and how much of your stack do you have to be able to bet on it, before you can minimize the importance of the community cards? If I have AKs and my opponent raises all-in and inadvertently flips up QJo, I'm stupid not to call; on the other hand if my opponent is dumb enough to expose his cards, could be I can count on a better edge if I wait for it. I would be very interested to see a probabilistic edge distribution across <i>x</i> hands - something that takes into account a set of players' predelictions for action, gives them all random hands and sees how likely certain common edges are to develop over a given period of time between opponents willing to take their respective hands to war. And, again, I could be just plain wrong. Waiting for an edge better than 8% does have its price, and until someone starts sending me a list of the hands I'll be getting in the next hour that price is going to be unknown. Imperfect information is a bitch. The problem with the “+EV is +EV” argument is that usually proponents of it appeal to hope while diminishing quite reasonable fears. It’s all well and good to presume that you’re a 3:2 favorite, but another thing entirely to be one – even with the best notes and tracking of regular players your likely edge when (to reference a recent discussion) taking TT to war early on is less than it would be if you just put TT up against AK over and over again – sometimes you’ll be up against suited overcards, sometimes an underpair (huge edge), sometimes (slightly more often, as not everyone’s that dumb)an overpair (not so huge an edge). (With apologies to Nerd, whose recent dissection of the UTG TT hand puts me to shame.) And this also presumes you can get all the money in before the flop; pushing tiny preflop edges with 5-20% of your stack will only work for you if you play well after the flop and get lucky. How big does a preflop edge have to be, and how much of your stack do you have to be able to bet on it, before you can minimize the importance of the community cards?

If I have AKs and my opponent raises all-in and inadvertently flips up QJo, I’m stupid not to call; on the other hand if my opponent is dumb enough to expose his cards, could be I can count on a better edge if I wait for it.

I would be very interested to see a probabilistic edge distribution across x hands – something that takes into account a set of players’ predelictions for action, gives them all random hands and sees how likely certain common edges are to develop over a given period of time between opponents willing to take their respective hands to war.

And, again, I could be just plain wrong. Waiting for an edge better than 8% does have its price, and until someone starts sending me a list of the hands I’ll be getting in the next hour that price is going to be unknown. Imperfect information is a bitch.

]]> By: Ranger http://www.absinthetics.com/blog/2006/06/15/sixty-minutes/comment-page-1/#comment-1429 Ranger Fri, 16 Jun 2006 23:09:08 +0000 http://www.absinthetics.com/blog/2006/06/15/sixty-minutes/#comment-1429 There's always another tournament, and +EV is +EV. Let me get all of my chips in as a 58-42 favorite every day please (and 10 times on Sundays). The only time I'd willingly refuse such a situation is when ICM dictates otherwise, and ICM's relevance is near zero in the first hour of a large online tournament. There’s always another tournament, and +EV is +EV. Let me get all of my chips in as a 58-42 favorite every day please (and 10 times on Sundays). The only time I’d willingly refuse such a situation is when ICM dictates otherwise, and ICM’s relevance is near zero in the first hour of a large online tournament.

]]> By: JD http://www.absinthetics.com/blog/2006/06/15/sixty-minutes/comment-page-1/#comment-1426 JD Fri, 16 Jun 2006 21:32:55 +0000 http://www.absinthetics.com/blog/2006/06/15/sixty-minutes/#comment-1426 Great post. Great post.

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