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09.14.06
Super Fun Puzzle Good Time
posted by Absinthe | 1:01 PM
Mom: “Is there any correlation between me telling you I read your blog every day and you not posting since?”
Me: “Um, no?”
No correlation. Just haven’t been playing much and have been devoid of deep thoughts. Other fish that need to be fried. Haven’t been out to Commerce for a week, though I’m heading out tomorrow since there’s $10K added to the prize pool of tomorrow’s $330 NLHE tourney – it’s like the overlay has an overlay.
Here’s a little hand history puzzle for you from a late-night $50+5 FTP tourney. Assume that one of the players in the example below is a donkey and that the other is a fish (I’m not saying which is which), determine their likely hands, and then determine the proper course of action on the river.
___RJBPROD___ posts the small blind of 25
vaios posts the big blind of 50
The button is in seat #8
Seat 4: Troublecat (4,415)
Seat 8: cdmkicks (1,510)
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Troublecat [Xx Xx]
Shlee1112 folds
Dukun Poker folds
Troublecat calls 50
jroc420 folds
andiamo123 folds
2005wakesetter calls 50
cdmkicks calls 50
___RJBPROD___ folds
vaios checks
*** FLOP *** [Th Jh 5s]
vaios checks
Troublecat bets 180
2005wakesetter folds
cdmkicks calls 180
vaios folds
*** TURN *** [Th Jh 5s] [8d]
Troublecat bets 400
cdmkicks calls 400
*** RIVER *** [Th Jh 5s 8d] [Jd]
Troublecat checks
cdmkicks bets 880, and is all in
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Topics: Poker | 13 Comments »
September 14, 2006 at 3:07 PM
Does Troublecat have 5-5 in the hole? Makes sense given the limp from 3rd position and the “let’s be serious about this” pot-sized bet on a sorta-dangerous flop for a set. . If cdmkicks is either a donkey or a fish, he could have limped with any sort of J there like K-J, Q-J, J-9, J-8 or even J-T.
Q-9, however sticks out in my head for some reason as cdm’s hand. A donkfish would likely call on the flop with the draw, call on the turn there when he hit and then push the river when the board paired as a misguided defensive manuver. And if Troublecat does indeed have 5-5, he’s about to dance the horah.
September 14, 2006 at 4:52 PM
Not to be too pedantic, but is it even possible to be dealt Xx twice in the same 52 card deck? This sounds like a WSOP horror story in the making.
Ah well, to the task at hand…
Change got to the idea you were betting the 5 set, which is one of the few hands that would be consistent with both the open-limp and the lead out flop/turn bets.
It’s also possible you held the OESD/Flush draw with Q9h – I see people betting their draw to disguise it, which may not be perfect math, but has a kind of devious logic behind it. If that were the case I’d place Igor on TPTK (AJ) oblivious to the danger of the turn card and overjoyed with his rivered set and your clear “weakness”. This would then make you the donkey for overbetting your draw, and Igor the fish for missing the straight danger and pushing when way behind.
Yeah, this take is prejudiced by the belief you called and won, but I tend to give a “guy who won 100k” some up front credit.
September 14, 2006 at 7:19 PM
Interesting theories so far. I will rule out either of us having a set of 5s – remember, one of us is a donkey, the other is a fish.
September 14, 2006 at 10:16 PM
i’m putting you on 9-10 and your boy on a busted flush draw.
September 14, 2006 at 10:28 PM
Troublecat has 9s7s for the straight.
cdmkicks has Jc4c for three of a kind.
Troublecat calls.
September 15, 2006 at 2:33 AM
I’d say Trouble cat was betting on TP, while cdm was drawing to a straight or flush. He missed on the river and thought a rubbish tiny bluff would work. It doesn’t, and Troublecall calls with his trip JJJ.
September 15, 2006 at 4:05 AM
Troublecat has JTo for jacks full of tens.
cdmkicks has J5o for jacks full of fives.
September 15, 2006 at 6:27 AM
Troublecat makes the boat with TT or JT
I’m guessing cdmkicks has a busted draw.
September 15, 2006 at 7:45 AM
I’m with smokkee on your boy’s busted flush draw. I admit though, I have no clue what you’re playing there. Skidoo’s “ass”essment sounds about the best to me.
September 15, 2006 at 8:08 AM
I mean with the JT skidoo mentioned…don’t think you’d be limping with 10′s, but who knows.
September 15, 2006 at 8:49 AM
i don’t think Ryan’s sitting on that strong of a hand. why would he check the river? i’m sure he’d value bet a boat there.
September 15, 2006 at 11:52 AM
smokkee is correct in that I would absolutely value-bet a boat (or trips, or any strong made hand) there. So far his guess is closest but still a little off the mark.
September 15, 2006 at 1:45 PM
another hand i could see you limping and betting on that board with might be Q-T. i still think shorty’s got a busted flush draw and tries an all-in steal after your check on the river.