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09.15.06
Super Fun Puzzle Good Time: Answer Key Edition
posted by Absinthe | 3:21 PM
No point in letting anyone stew over the weekend. smokkee has the closest guesses so far, assigning me second pair and my opponent a busted flush draw, making him slightly less willing than the rest of you to give both of us credit for legitimate hands.
Preflop:
Troublecat calls 50
cdmkicks calls 50
Obviously the range here is pretty broad. I’m in early position early on in the tournament, so you can rule out big hands (AA, KK, QQ, AKs) because I’m just not limping with them. My range is therefore just about any pair, most suited connectors, two suited paint, big suited aces. Opponent’s range is unknown but with action behind he’d likely raise with a big hand.
Flop:
*** FLOP *** [Th Jh 5s]
vaios checks
Troublecat bets 180
2005wakesetter folds
cdmkicks calls 180
vaios folds
I’m betting 180 into a pot of 225. Normally I’d call this a stiff bet but I nearly always bet close to this amount on the flop online when stacks are (relatively) deep. Still, I like my hand enough to bet it from early-mid position; given the texture of the board, this is a likely bet for me to make with a jack, a ten, two pair, a set, 88 or 99, or a good draw – I’m more inclined to play marginal hands strongly here because nobody’s announced they like their hand.
Button flat-calls. This is unusual to me because of board texture – it’s a very dangerous board to slowplay anything. At this point I think button may have a ten, straight and/or flush draws, or the desire to make an “advanced” play, just hoping that I’m making a routine bet and that he can bet the turn if I check.
Turn:
*** TURN *** [Th Jh 5s] [8d]
Troublecat bets 400
cdmkicks calls 400
I bet 400 into a pot of 625 and get called.
Remember, one of us is a donkey, the other is a fish.
8d completes some draws but none of them is all that likely – the nut hand is now Q9, a more likely holding for the button than for me. But if button has Q9, wouldn’t he move in now? He has less than the size of the pot remaining after he calls and his hand can’t get any stronger on the river.
At this point I rule out strong hands for my opponent; the board is too dangerous to slowplay any set or two pair combos, the straight is out for similar reasons. The only hands I can see flat-calling here are KT (pair of tens and a gutshot), KQ (OESD), 89 (pair of eights and an OESD). All of them are fairly optimistic calls in the face of strong bets.
River:
*** RIVER *** [Th Jh 5s 8d] [Jd]
Troublecat checks
cdmkicks bets 880, and is all in
Troublecat calls 880
I really wish there were a “Troublecat has 15 seconds left to act” line in there because it would at least suggest substantive deliberation on my part.
River pairs the board, fails to complete any draws. I check, he bets, I call getting in the neighborhood of 2:1. Either his hand is good or mine is.
*** SHOW DOWN ***
cdmkicks shows [Qc Ks] (a pair of Jacks)
Troublecat shows [Ah 9h] (a pair of Jacks)
Troublecat wins the pot (3,145) with a pair of Jacks
cdmkicks stands up
I lead on the flop with a flush draw, thinking that my probably live ace and flush outs give me a well-disguised hand if I hit, and picking up a 225-chip pot is not a bad result if I get no resistance. Button call on the flop is disappointing but strikes me a little odd as it is, again, a dangerous board to be slowplaying on.
Turn is the 8, giving me an OESD to go along with my flush draw. I will nearly always fire again on the turn if my hand “improves” by picking up additional outs. Nonetheless I’d be happy to take the pot right here. Button call is more disappointing but now completely baffling. What does he have?
River Jd. I’ve missed everything. Button has shown no indication that he wants to lay down his hand; the river J does counterfeit some random two-pair holdings and the like but I don’t think he has enough chips left to lay down any reasonable hand if I bet so I check, expecting it to go check-check and him to turn over a pair of tens and take the pot.
Instead he pushes. Suddenly I have to reconsider everything. Is he value-pushing with tens? I think he obviously doesn’t have a jack or a set, and pushing there with something like 99 is suicide. I know he doesn’t have something like Kh9h or Qh9h because, well, I HAVE 9h; ditto for Ah5h for the flopped pair-and-a-flush-draw, since I can see the ace of hearts in my hand and there’s something seriously wrong with the RNG if he has it too. I can beat all busted flush draws except for those that contain a 5 or 8, and most of the busted straight draws as well. Furthermore, a lot of the busted flush draws actually make sense given the type of play you see early in these tourneys. So finally I call, he has king high no hearts for the busted straight draw + two king outs, and I was ahead all along.
This is the type of play that looks genius when it happens, but ultimately it’s a fairly donkish call. Hence I’m a donkey, he’s a fish. Also, for just about every time you make a clutch call like this, you’re going to make a bad one, like I did deep in last night’s FTP 20K – in a blind vs. blind battle, I called turn and river bets with king high against someone who’d flopped top pair, turned trips, and rivered quads. D’oh! Your goal is to look like a genius just slightly more often than you look like an idiot, because that’s all it takes to make a profit.
And now I’m off to Commerce, because their $330 tourney for today has $10k added to the prize pool. A 30-buyin overlay is just too sweet to pass up, even though it’ll probably only be about 5% of the prize pool.
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Topics: Poker | 3 Comments »
September 15, 2006 at 6:52 PM
Very interesting. I will take solace in that I was correct you were disguising your draw with a biggish flop bet.
How exactly you decided this was not an overbet for value is this only thing I’m not sure of. A sophisticated player might push a set there for just such a call as you made.
Nonetheless, it got the brain working, and I am always grateful for that.
September 16, 2006 at 12:09 AM
very nice. i figured you had at least a pair and a draw leading the betting to the river. i didn’t put you on Ace suited but, it makes sense holding a 9 kicker on that board. nice call on the river. you knew he attempted a steal on a busted draw. i’d have a tough time calling there. Ace high good. vnh
September 16, 2006 at 3:58 PM
I had it totally backwards. Oh well, I’m wrong about most stuff. Nh, sir. Winning is everything.