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02.10.09
What I Hate More Than Anything Else
posted by Absinthe | 5:52 PM
… is getting it in bad.
Except that’s not quite true. When I’m playing a shortstack I’m indifferent at worst to the notion. Cold-decked, I can handle that too. What I really hate is getting my par-or-better stack in and discovering that I’m either dead or drawing very, very thin.
Naturally, the last two tournaments I’ve played, this is exactly what I’ve done. So I hate that a little. What I hate even more, it turns out, is this: I’d do it again.
$545 NLHE
The guy in the 1 has been catching miracles for the last hour. Once he checkraises all-in on the turn with nothing but a gutter draw, the other time he cuts out the middleman and just open-shoves. Catches both times. They’re crazy plays – he’s moving in on pots that aren’t small, against players who are tight enough that they’re not in the pot with nothing. The only reason he’s alive – and has enough chips to bust me – is the unusually cooperative dealer who’s peeled off two river four-outers for him.
The blinds are 200/400 with a 50 ante, meaning that while my stack – just a hair shy of 12K – is still healthy, I can’t sit on my hands. I get QQ in early position and raise to 1500, getting one caller just to my left, and the guy in the 1 comes along for the ride.
892 flop, rainbow. Just about perfect – the straight draw is the only thing I’m really worried about. The 1 seat checks and I think about the right amount to bet. There’s a little over 10k in my stack, and the pot’s about half that; I figure 3k is a good price, enough to get good value for my hand, leaving myself enough behind to make a solid turn bet to hurt anyone who sticks around and chases. Guy to my left folds, 1 seat calls. Dealer burns and turns a 9.
The 1 seat blinks a bunch and for a moment I wonder if I’m going to win the hand on account of a seizure. Finally he announces he’s all-in. (With the accent, it comes out “Ow een”, but the meaning is clear.)
I lean back and go into the tank. Against any of the other 8 players at the table, the only thing I’d be thinking about is whether to muck my hand face-down or face-up. Normally I hate showing I can be blown off a hand, but with a 7k stack and these blinds I want people to think I’m only coming in with a good hand.
Anyone else at the table. I’d think the play was a little strange – a check will win them more on the long run than the bet – but I’d sigh, say “nice hand”, and move on. But against this guy I can’t do it without going through it in my head. I start ruling out hands. AA and KK are out, or he’d have squeezed preflop – otherwise he’s out of position against two players, and while I think he’s crazy, I don’t think he’s stupid. Obviously I’m not frightened of QQ, nor JJ or TT. I can’t see him playing 99 that way, and the only reason for him to shove 88 or 22 there is if he thinks I have a 9 – otherwise it’s easiest to just checkraise or call me when I bet the turn. And frankly, the only hand with a 9 I’m raising with from around back at this stage just made quads, so I should have such problems.
So either he’s got the 9 or I have him crushed. From what I’ve seen him do I know he’s capable of playing the same way with JT, QJ, 67, even 78 or A8. It’s a dodgy turn card and a good opportunity to take the pot away from a tight player, and when you’ve proven you’ll do it with as little as four outs …
I replay the action. Raise, call. Bet, call. It’s unfortunately not much help – he’s equally likely to be drawing or doing the ol’ “I put you on ace-king”.
I have no fear whatsoever of playing a shortstack. Folding now doesn’t cripple me by any of the definitions I use. The safe thing to do is fold and move on. But I have to put the puzzle together before I do.
So ultimately it comes down to the math. What kind of price do I have to be getting to make it a good call? After the flop bet-and-call there’s about 11k out there. His bet, matching my 7k stack, makes it 18k. 2.5 to 1. Can I fold, knowing I could be drawing to two outs, but having seen him get out of line so much recently?
Alas, I can’t. Alas, he has T9. Alas, I am not the last one out, and hence will neither be turning out the lights nor getting paid.
And, alas, I’d do it again. Same cards, same players, same position, same actions.
Later on I decide that the pause before he moved all-in was the important bit of information that I couldn’t decode. Hindsight says the hitch in his giddyap was because he’d thought his pair was good on the flop and planned to move in on the turn all along – a plan I would have been happy to get behind – but when the 9 hit he had to stop and think about it, got confused, and decided to follow his original line. I’d bet that’s what happened, and give myself the same odds of being right as I would have the call that got me into trouble: just good enough to play, not good enough to win this time out.
$1065 NLHE
“So I’m in early position with king-queen offsuit …”
Yeah, that’s how the story begins. I’d like to say I have nobody to blame but myself, but this time I think there’s enough to go around.
I’ve been playing tight, the blinds are 75/150, and I have about 6k – up a little from my beginning stack, but nothing special. And I have KQo in early position. Usually I’m tight enough to just let that go and wait for something better to come along, but my image is good and I think I have a good chance of taking the pot with a continuation bet on a ragged or ace-high flop; if I don’t, I have an easy fold with no real harm done. So I raise to 500.
Cutoff calls, small blind calls. Small blind and cutoff just tangled in the last hand, with cutoff making about the dumbest play possible with pocket threes and sucking out on small blind and a recently-eliminated player. Like this: eliminated player raises to 550, cutoff calls, small blind raises to 2500, eliminated player goes all-in for like 1100 more, cutoff says “well, it’s my chance to triple up” and puts in all of his chips. Cutoff, as mentioned, has 33; eliminated player has AQo; small blind has 77. Queen-high flop, blank turn, river 3.
When I get called twice I’m already picturing the gentle arc my cards will follow when I pitch them into the muck on the flop. “Anything but a KQx flop and I am outta here,” I’m telling myself. So the dealer obliges me, rolling out a king, a queen, and a ten. Rainbow.
Top two on a scary board, but the only hands I’m liable to fear are AJ, TT and J9. Small blind checks, I lead for 850 into a pot of 1575, cutoff calls, small blind goes away. Dealer burns and turns a 7.
The 7 can’t possibly have hurt me. Still, cutoff’s range is wide – at the top end, there’s the flopped straight and the set of tens (mental picture: cutoff lifting me off the ground, Darth Vader-style, choking the life out of me), and near the bottom, a host of pair-and-a-draw or two-pair combos that I have absolutely crushed (mental picture: me, cigar clenched in my teeth, laughing and riffling through a pile of fresh, crisp Benjamins). If I fear the monster I can’t get value from the mouse. I think I’m ahead but obviously very vulnerable, so the question becomes how much to bet.
I have about 4600 in my stack and the pot has swelled to just over 3200. This presents a conundrum; bet too little and I’m pricing in a draw while out of position, bet a reasonable amount and I’m leaving something behind for a draw to win (and even without a draw, I have to surrender if any ace, jack, ten or nine hits the river), bet too much against a hand that beats me and I’m sticking in my stack with the worst of it. Again.
My read is that cutoff most likely has a jack and a pair to go with it. Yeah, AJo is a possibility, as is a set (of tens, kings or queens being very unlikely). I think I have the best of it, and what tips it for me is the likelihood that a lot of hands I’m well ahead of make for very reasonable calls on my opponent’s part – I don’t think he’s liable to fold JT or QJ to a big overbet. So I go all-in. He calls with TT. I miss the four-outer on the river. I go home. Again.
And, why, yes, I would do it again. Whether the fault is in my stars or in myself remains to be seen.
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March 5, 2009 at 4:48 AM